USDA Reports Flash

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This article was originally posted at 11:01 a.m. CST. It was updated at 11:23 a.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

USDA on Friday raised its corn yield estimate by 1.7 bushels to 176.3 bushels per acre (bpa), pushing estimated production to 14.99 billion bushels (bb) for the 2021-22 crop. USDA lowered soybean acreage estimates but increased yield forecasts, resulting in slightly higher production. Acreage dropped to 87.2 million from 87.6 million in August, while yield climbed 0.6 bpa to 50.6 bpa during the same timeframe.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat. Hultman pegged the world ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from today's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA increased the yield estimate for corn by 1.7 bpa to 176.3 bpa. Along with that, USDA also slightly raised planted and harvested acres, increasing planted acres 600,000 acres to 93.3 million acres (ma). That bumps up estimated harvested acres as well to 85.1 ma.

The higher yield comes in just below the 2017 record yield of 176.6 bpa.

The moves on yield and acreage increase corn production for the new crop year, 2021-22, to 14.99 bb, up 246 ma from the August report.

USDA pegs ending stocks for 2021-22 at 1.408 bb. Looking at demand, USDA, raised feed and residual use 75 mb to 5.7 bb. Exports were also raised 75 mb to 2.4 bb as well. USDA also increased the old-crop ending stocks by 70 mb, bumping it to 1.187 bb compared to the August estimate of 1.117 bb. USDA lowered old-crop food, seed and industrial use and ethanol use to bring down the total use for the old crop.

The changes in the September numbers lowered the national average farm gate price by 30 cents to $5.45 per bushel. That comes after USDA had raised the average price 15 cents a bushel in the August report.

Globally, USDA forecasts the 2021-22 world ending stocks at 297.63 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 13 mmt from the August forecast. USDA raised global estimated production 11.65 mmt to 1,197.77 mmt.

For old-crop corn, world ending stocks came in at 286.48 mmt, up 5.73 mmt from August. The Brazilian production forecast -- still looking at the old crop from 2020-21 -- was lowered 1 mmt to 86 mmt. Argentina's production was increased 1.5 mmt to 50 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA tweaked both acreage and yield estimates for soybeans. Planted acreage declined to 87.2 million from 87.6 in August, while yield climbed 0.6 bpa to 50.6 bpa during the same timeframe.

The result was a 35 mb increase in forecast production to 4.374 bb. USDA boosted beginning stocks, which are also ending stocks from the 2020-21 marketing year, by 15 mb to 175 mb. It lowered its import forecast by 10 mb, resulting in total supply of 4.574 bb.

On demand, USDA reduced its crush forecast by 25 mb while boosting exports by 35 mb. It also sees 10 mb higher total use. The result is that ending stocks for 2021-22 increased to 185 mb, a 30 mb increase from last month that's in line with pre-report estimates.

The national average farm gate price dropped by 80 cents from the August report to $12.90 per bushel.

For old-crop (2020-21) ending stocks, USDA anticipates finding 15 mb more on hand, due to a reduction in crush.

Globally, USDA sees higher ending stocks of 98.89 mmt in the 2021-22 crop year, with USDA saying that higher beginning stocks for China and higher U.S. ending stocks account for most of the 2.7 mmt increase.

USDA left 2020-21 production for Brazil and Argentina unchanged at 137 mt and 46 mmt, respectively. For the upcoming crop season, USDA forecasts Brazilian production at 144 mmt and Argentine production at 52 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA left U.S. wheat production untouched, with planted acres still sitting at 46.7 million and average yield at 44.5 bpa.

USDA still sees tight wheat ending stocks, trimming them to 615 mb, down from 627 mb in August. USDA knocked wheat imports down 10 mb, while increasing food use by 2 mb, resulting in the tighter ending stocks situation. The agency trimmed U.S. farm gate prices by 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel.

Globally, USDA increased wheat world ending stocks up more than 4 mmt, to 283.22 mmt. Global production was up overall, with USDA bumping up Australia production 1.5 mmt to 31.5 mmt, as well as boosting European Union's production up slightly to 139 mmt. This more than offset a slight drop in Canadian production, down 1 mmt to 23 mmt, while Russian production stayed flat 72.5 mmt.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Friday, Sept. 10, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://ag.dtn.com/…

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2021-22  
 SepAvgHighLowAug2020-21
Corn14,99614,89715,11614,66714,75014,182
Soybeans4,3744,3634,4404,2694,3394,135
       
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2021-22 (WASDE)
 SepAvgHighLowAug2020-21
Corn176.3175.5177.5172.2174.6172.0
Soybeans50.650.351.249.050.050.2
       
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
 SepAvgHighLowAug 
Corn1,1871,1591,2241,0911,117 
Soybeans175166199140160 
       
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2021-22
 SepAverageHighLowAug 
Corn1,4081,3291,5451,0181,242 
Soybeans185178245132155 
Wheat615619653579627 
       
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2020-21
 SepAvgHighLowAug 
Corn286.5281.0282.0279.9280.8 
Soybeans95.192.593.489.292.8 
Wheat292.6288.6290.0287.0288.8 
       
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22
 SepAvg.HighLowAug 
Corn297.6285.7290.5281.5284.6 
Soybeans98.996.998.791.296.2 
Wheat283.2278.9288.0276.0279.1 
       
09/10/2021
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