USDA Reports Flash

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This article was originally posted at 11:05 a.m. CST. It was updated at 11:22 a.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA increased the 2021-22 soybean yield by nearly a bushel to 55.5 bushels per acre (bpa) on Tuesday, increasing soybean production to 4.448 billion bushels (bb) while also increasing corn yield slightly, raising corn production for the 2021-22 corn crop to 15.019 bb.

USDA also dropped 2021-22 wheat ending stocks to 580 million bushels (mb), the lowest ending stocks in 14 years, based largely on lowered production.

USDA on Tuesday released the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for October.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat, while Tuesday's world ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans but bullish for wheat.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

For the 2021-22 corn crop, USDA increased yield by .2 bpa to 176.5 bpa. Production was increased 23 mb to 15.019 bb. USDA also increased the carryover of old crop to 1.236 bb. That put total supply at 16.280 bb for the 2021-22 corn crop.

USDA lowered Feed and Residual use by 50 mb to 5.65 bb. Food, seed and industrial use was increased 5 mb to 6.63 bb. Exports were also increase 25 mb to 2.5 bb. Still, total use was lowered 20 mb to 14.780 bb. That put the 2021-22 projected ending stocks at 1.5 bb, up 92 mb from September projections.

The average farmgate price held steady at 5.45 per bushel.

As expected, USDA revised downward some numbers from the 2020-21 old-crop corn production. Area harvested was reduced by 200,000 acres to 82.3 million acres. Yield was reduced .6 bushels to 171.4 bpa. Production was lowered by 71 mb to 14.111 bb.

USDA lowered old-crop feed and residual use by mb to 5.597 bb. USDA did raise exports by 8 mb for the old crop. With lower overall usage raised by 121 mb, USDA came with total old-crop usage at 14.819 bb.

Despite the lower production numbers, 2020-21 ending stocks were revised upward by 49 mb to 1.236 bb, in line with the NASS ending stocks figure released at the end of September. The total remains the lowest carryover in seven years.

Globally, old-crop ending stocks came in at 289.99 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.51 mmt from September.

In new-crop (2021-22) corn, beginning stocks were up 3.51 mmt and production was increased .45 mmt. Exports were increased .64 mmt and ending stocks for global corn were increased 4.11 mmt to 301.74 mmt. USDA made no changes for export forecasts for Argentina at 53 mmt or Brazil at 118 mmt but did lower Ukraine production 1 mmt to 38 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA increased the national average soybean yield for the 2021-22 season to 51.5 bpa, resulting in a 74 mb increase in production to 4.45 bb. Both yield and production came in toward the high end of pre-report estimates.

Ending stocks for the new-crop 2021-22 season, which also reflect changes made to the 2020-21 season following the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report, rose to 320 mb from last month's estimate of 185 mb.

In addition to production increases, USDA lowered its import estimate by 10 mb, revised crush upwards by 10 mb, left exports unchanged and adjusted the residual estimate by 1 mb. The result is total use of 4.4 bb of use and 320 mb of ending stocks. The national average farm gate price declined 55 cents to $12.35 per bushel.

On the old stocks ledger, USDA adjusted production to 4.22 bb, up 81 mb from last month's estimate, reflecting its increase in national average yield to 51 bpa. Crush use was revised upward by 1 mb, exports came in 5 mb higher and residual was adjusted to -3 mb, a 7 mb decline. Overall usage was unchanged at 4.51 bb. Ending stocks landed at 256 mb, which USDA found as the result of its September survey of ending stocks. The national average farm gate price declined by a dime to $10.80 per bushel.

Globally, 2021-22 ending stocks rose 5.68 mmt to 104.57 mmt, reflecting higher beginning stocks particularly for the United States, Argentina and China. USDA increased production and slightly lower crush. USDA lowered its forecast for Argentina's production by 1 mmt to 51 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA expects U.S. wheat production for 2021-22 to drop to 1.646 bb, down 51 mb from the September report. The agency trimmed averaged projected yield to 44.3 bpa and lowered harvested acres to 37.2 million acres. Ending stocks landed at 580 mb, based on that drop in production and a 10 mb drop in imports, which together more than offset a 25 mb drop in feed and residual use.

The average farmgate price for wheat were adjusted 10 cents upward to $6.70 per bushel.

Globally, wheat ending stocks for old crop wheat were left sitting at 288.36 mmt, on the low end of pre-report analyst expectations, and down from 292.6 mmt in the September report.

New-crop world wheat ending stocks were also dropped below expectations, to 277.18 mmt, a more than 6-mmt drop from September. In production estimates, USDA bumped Canadian new crop wheat production down 2 mmt to 21 mmt, boosted the EU production slightly to 139.4 mmt and left Russia, Ukraine and Argentina production unchanged.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Oct. 12, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://ag.dtn.com/…

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2021-22  
 OctAvgHighLowSep2020-21
Corn15,01814,94815,18814,70214,99614,182
Soybeans4,4484,4094,4654,3224,3744,135
       
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2021-22 (WASDE)
 OctAvgHighLowSep2020-21
Corn176.5175.9178.5173.5176.3172.0
Soybeans51.551.151.550.050.650.2
       
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2021-22
 OctAvgHighLowSep2020-21
Corn85.185.085.384.485.182.5
Soybeans86.486.486.786.086.482.3
       
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2021-22
 OctAverageHighLowSep 
Corn1,5001,4211,5491,2381,408 
Soybeans320289373192185 
Wheat580581617470615 
       
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2020-21
 OctAvgHighLowSep 
Corn290.0287.4289.5285.0286.5 
Soybeans99.296.498.094.895.1 
Wheat288.4291.5293.8288.6292.6 
       
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22
 OctAvg.HighLowSep 
Corn301.7298.4301.6295.0297.6 
Soybeans104.6101.0103.096.398.9 
Wheat277.2280.9284.5278.0283.2 
10/12/2021
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