Informa Raises Crop Forecasts

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By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor

OMAHA (DTN) -- In one of the flurry of report estimates leading up to next week's USDA crop production report, private analytical firm Informa Economics on Friday bumped up its forecasts for corn and soybean production.

The forecasts for corn and soybeans are bearish, based on Informa's numbers, according to DTN analysts.

CORN

Informa projects corn production at a record 14.69 billion bushels and a yield of 169.8 bushels per acre. If realized, the corn crop would be 1.09 billion bushels higher than last year's crop. Informa cited higher corn conditions since the first week of July that remained steady throughout the month. As of July 31, 76% of the corn crop was rated as good to excellent.

Last month, USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. corn production at 14.54 billion bushels with an average yield of 168 bushels per acre.

SOYBEANS

Informa pegged soybean production at 3.958 billion bushels with a yield at 47.4 bushels per acre. Both are also increases from Informa's forecast last month and the July WASDE report. Informa projected higher yields in the western side of the production areas and Midsouth, tempered with some potential declines in Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

The July WASDE report projected soybean production at 3.88 billion bushels and a projected yield of 46.7 bushels per acre.

Todd Hultman, DTN analyst, stated both of Informa's estimates are in line with the direction (more bearish) that most are thinking because USDA's crop ratings are high.

"Even though many of us are thinking the final yield for corn may be higher than Informa's estimate, Informa is probably correct in expecting USDA's increases to start gradually with a modest increase in August," Hultman said.

WHEAT

Informa also raised its projection for all wheat production to 2.318 billion bushels, which is 57 million bushels higher than the July WASDE projection. For winter wheat, Informa pegged the production at 1.671 billion bushels, which also is 8 million bushels higher than the July USDA Crop Production report.

The USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports will be released at 11 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Friday, Aug. 12.

DTN will hold a webinar following the release of the crop report at noon CDT on Aug. 12. You can register for the webinar at this link: http://dld.bz/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at chris.clayton@dtn.com

Follow Chris Clayton on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN

(AG)